Friday, 1 May 2015

UK-Elect General Election Forecast

UK-Elect General Election Forecast, May 1st 2015.

Hung Parliament - Con ahead by 6 seats, short by 49.

In the latest, detailed (top 3 parties in every constituency) UK-Elect forecast, the Conservatives are forecast to win 276 seats, to 270 for the Labour Party, with the Scottish National Party on 56 seats, the Liberal Democrats 23, the Democratic Unionist Party 9, Sinn Fein 5, UKIP 3, Plaid Cymru 3, SDLP 3, Green 1 and Others 2. This is the first recent UK-Elect forecast which predicts a Conservative lead, although still 49 seats short of an overall majority.
The GB percentages input for this forecast were Con 35%, Lab 33%, UKIP 12.5%, Lib Dem 8.5%, Green 6%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 49%, Lab 24.5%, Con 16%, Lib Dem 5%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 40% Con 26%, UKIP 12.5%, Plaid Cymru 12%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 4%, and for London the percentages used were Lab 44%, Con 34%, UKIP 8%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5% Other parties votes were not specifically set. Note that the final forecast percentages differ from the input percentages due to the methodology used (including adjusting for the number of days until the election) - e.g. the final UK target percentages used were Con 35%, Lab 32.9%, UKIP 12.4%, LD 8.6%, Green 5.4%.
See also latest statistics, graphics and maps:
Constituencies: UK   Scotland   Scotland (by maj)   Wales   London
Percentages: Main Party Percentages In Every Constituency
Maps: UK   Scotland   Wales   London   E England   SW England   SE England   NW England   NE England   West Midlands   East Midlands   Yorks and Humberside   Gains   Losses   Swing   2nd 
Liberal Democrat23-33
Sinn Fein5-
Plaid Cymru3-
Con Short By 49 - Hung Parliament
See UK-Elect Detailed Forecastfor the detailed forecast.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for UKForecast for Scotland
Forecast for WalesForecast for Eastern England
Forecast for LondonForecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge and see a comparison with 2010. There are additional regional maps on the detailed forecast page. See also the more maps page.

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