Wednesday, 6 May 2015

The Final #GE2015 Projection from the Hustings

Our final Seats tally sees Labour (282) edge the Conservatives (275) with the SNP (46) a clear third.
A full list of vote shares in each seat is available here. NB. 32 of these seats have a margin of victory of sub 2%
6May prediction seats

Key factors to bear in mind
  • Will SNP’s vote turn out: The Indyref saw the Yes campaign fall short because of silent No voters – will a similar dynamic (plus tactical voting) reduce the SNP’s tally?
  • Will the younger vote turn out: If on the electoral register, will younger voters support Labour and the Greens in large numbers?
  • Will UKIP fade: UKIP supporters appear to be committed, but there’s a possibility that a proportion will return to their prior party, or simply not vote.
Future model improvements (after Results dissection and scrutiny of where we were wrong) – to account for more complexity of tactical voting, to include more bespoke constituency-sepcific variables, to factor in the success of campaigning in ‘surge’ seats.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Comment is open to all feel free to link to this blog.