Monday 20 April 2015

Green Party areas of strength and weakness by Electoral Calculus

Let's look at the Greens to see what geographic variation their support has. Similarly the UKIP, the semi-inter quartile range approximately doubles in width from 1.7% (old range from 5.1% to 6.8%) to 3.1% (new range from 4.1% to 7.2%). This shows that the new model allows for more geographic variation than the straight STM.

The top ten Green seats for the old and new models are shown below:
Seat (old model)RegionPred Green
votes
Brighton PavilionSouth East35%
Norwich SouthEast Anglia20%
CambridgeEast Anglia13%
Lewisham DeptfordSouth London12%
Leeds WestYorkshire11%
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashire10%
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonNorth London10%
HoveSouth East10%
Brighton KemptownSouth East10%
HuddersfieldYorkshire10%
Seat (new model)RegionPred Green
votes
Brighton PavilionSouth East38%
Norwich SouthEast Anglia24%
CambridgeEast Anglia18%
Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonNorth London16%
Lewisham DeptfordSouth London16%
Oxford EastWest16%
Bristol WestWest15%
Hackney South and ShoreditchNorth London15%
Bristol SouthWest15%
Bristol EastWest14%


The strongest Green seats are now more strong than previous estimates, with Green support generally about 5% higher. The strong seats are more concentrated in the south of England than before. We can see the regional breakdown in the table below.
RegionOld
Model
New
Model
West6.5%9.0%
South West6.1%7.8%
South London6.9%7.6%
North London6.6%7.5%
South East7.1%7.2%
East Anglia7.2%7.1%
Yorkshire6.7%7.1%
South6.0%6.6%
Greater Manchester6.3%6.1%
Essex6.1%5.8%
Humberside6.3%5.6%
Lancashire5.5%5.5%
East Midlands6.0%5.2%
North6.1%5.0%
Severn6.0%4.8%
West Midlands5.7%4.0%
East Scotland3.2%3.4%
Wales5.3%3.4%
West Scotland2.7%2.8%

Strong regions for the Greens are in the West/South West, London and the South East. Weaker regions for the Greens are Scotland, Wales and the north of England.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_shapedstm.html SOURCE

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