Sunday, 30 November 2014

Yougov ( The Scottish sub sample )  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

The predicted Westminster results in Scotland, given the Scottish levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

Scottish Prediction:

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

Table of all seat results in Scotland

The table shows the seats, sorted by the difference between Labour and Conservative votes, with the safest Labour seat, Glasgow North East, at the top and the safest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, at the bottom. The first two columns 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats' show how many seats each party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 30 seats to have a majority in Scotland. So Labour needs to win all the seats down as far as (prediction: ), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to (prediction: ). Click here for more information about this table.

SeatMP at 2010 ElectorateTurn
out %
117Glasgow North EastWillie Bain59,85949.135.0656.920.0031.042.714.27LABLAB
216Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillTom Clarke70,06759.427.6855.170.0034.540.002.61LABLAB
315Glasgow EastMargaret Curran61,51652.294.2850.120.0039.282.104.20LABLAB
414Glasgow South WestIan Davidson58,18254.626.2251.070.0034.460.008.25LABLAB
513Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathGordon Brown73,66562.188.8153.110.0032.800.005.27LABLAB
612GlenrothesLindsay Roy67,89359.656.8450.910.0038.700.003.55LABLAB
711Dunbartonshire WestGemma Doyle66,08563.967.2749.860.0037.490.005.37LABLAB
810Motherwell and WishawFrank Roy66,91858.468.8749.690.0037.100.004.35LABLAB
99Rutherglen and Hamilton WestTom Greatrex76,40861.499.1649.380.0036.950.004.51LABLAB
108Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthDouglas Alexander61,19765.369.4348.180.0036.790.005.60LABLAB
117Airdrie and ShottsPamela Nash62,36457.488.2946.730.0040.950.004.04LABLAB
126Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch EastGregg McClymont64,03764.267.8545.800.0042.450.003.90LABLAB
125Glasgow CentralAnas Sarwar60,06250.916.6940.590.0042.082.628.02LABNAT
135Glasgow North WestJohn Robertson60,96858.369.4242.620.0039.440.008.51LABLAB
144InverclydeDavid Cairns59,20963.3611.3844.540.0039.670.004.42LABLAB
143Glasgow SouthTom Harris65,02961.6610.8640.290.0040.930.007.92LABNAT
153Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthJames Sheridan63,70468.6113.8442.600.0038.850.004.71LABLAB
152Dunfermline and West FifeThomas Docherty73,76966.356.4034.829.1243.520.006.14LABNAT
152Dundee WestJames McGovern63,01358.928.8437.040.0049.180.004.94LABNAT
152East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowMichael McCann76,53466.5712.3140.080.0042.230.005.38LABNAT
152Kilmarnock and LoudounCathy Jamieson74,13162.8013.4341.110.0042.950.002.51LABNAT
152Linlithgow and East FalkirkMichael Connarty80,90763.5911.3338.400.0047.090.003.19LABNAT
152LivingstonGraeme Morrice75,92463.1010.2137.030.0046.050.006.71LABNAT
152Glasgow NorthAnn McKechin51,41657.596.6933.086.8643.540.009.83LABNAT
152MidlothianDavid Hamilton61,38763.9311.2635.590.0046.040.007.11LABNAT
152Lanark and Hamilton EastJimmy Hood74,77362.2614.2238.530.0041.470.005.78LABNAT
152FalkirkEric Joyce81,86962.0210.6434.280.0049.690.005.39LABNAT
152Edinburgh EastSheila Gilmore60,94165.4210.3632.000.0047.805.104.72LABNAT
152Aberdeen NorthFrank Doran64,80858.1711.7332.990.0048.950.006.33LABNAT
152Ayrshire North and ArranKaty Clark74,95361.5314.8335.970.0045.360.003.83LABNAT
152Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles)Angus MacNeil22,26666.104.1721.450.0062.349.592.45NATNAT
152Ayrshire CentralBrian Donohoe68,35264.2519.3336.280.0040.300.004.09LABNAT
152East LothianFiona O'Donnell73,43866.9418.6333.160.0041.580.006.63LABNAT
152Edinburgh North and LeithMark Lazarowicz69,20468.4314.1726.038.3642.482.246.72LABNAT
152Ayr Carrick and CumnockSandra Osborne73,32062.5924.5035.710.0037.000.002.79LABNAT
162Renfrewshire EastJim Murphy66,24977.2629.3839.350.0027.760.003.51LABLAB
161Edinburgh South WestAlistair Darling66,35968.5123.2231.410.0038.740.006.64LABNAT
161Dunbartonshire EastJo Swinson63,79575.1614.6922.7111.3045.070.006.22LIBNAT
161Dundee EastStewart Hosie65,47161.9614.4421.920.0057.690.005.95NATNAT
161StirlingAnne McGuire66,08070.8922.9930.330.0040.790.005.90LABNAT
161Ochil and South PerthshireGordon Banks75,11567.1919.4526.480.0048.430.005.64LABNAT
161Aberdeen SouthAnne Begg64,03167.2119.6825.115.0743.040.007.10LABNAT
171Dumfries and GallowayRussell Brown74,58169.9530.5934.480.0030.870.004.07LABLAB
170Edinburgh SouthIan Murray59,35473.8020.5423.318.4740.780.006.89LABNAT
170Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossJohn Thurso47,25760.8812.3413.1912.9354.530.007.02LIBNAT
170Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyDanny Alexander72,52864.9212.6410.6712.5353.830.0010.33LIBNAT
170Ross Skye and LochaberCharles Kennedy51,83667.2111.596.4819.7351.860.0010.34LIBNAT
170Orkney and ShetlandAlistair Carmichael33,08558.479.964.5725.3848.230.0011.87LIBNAT
170Edinburgh WestMichael Crockart65,16171.2822.1416.319.6346.950.004.98LIBNAT
170GordonMalcolm Bruce73,42066.4317.718.699.6955.960.007.95LIBNAT
170Argyll and ButeAlan Reid67,16567.3122.9911.307.0251.240.007.45LIBNAT
170Fife North EastSir Menzies Campbell62,96963.6220.717.3514.7149.450.007.77LIBNAT
170MorayAngus Robertson65,92562.2025.027.320.0061.760.005.90NATNAT
170Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDavid Mundell66,62768.8837.0017.470.0038.880.006.64CONNAT
170Perth and North PerthshirePeter Wishart72,14166.9129.507.040.0059.440.004.03NATNAT
170AngusMichael Weir62,86360.3929.887.380.0058.440.004.30NATNAT
170Aberdeenshire West and KincardineSir Robert Smith66,11068.3629.235.8411.1347.150.006.65LIBNAT
170Banff and BuchanEilidh Whiteford64,30059.8229.756.000.0059.010.005.24NATNAT
170Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkMichael Moore73,82666.3932.744.3815.3341.330.006.23LIBNAT 

YOUGOV (Working v Middle Class)  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard 

Saturday, 29 November 2014

Biggest Ever Bet on UKIP To WIN General Election

Written by Graham Sharpe
Bookmakers William Hill have taken a bet of £870 for Ukip at odds of 50/1 to come out of the General Election with an overall majority and have now slashed their price for that to happen to 40/1, the shortest odds they have ever offered. 'We can't see this happening,political pundits can't see it happening, but punters are betting with hard cash that it will happen.Bookmaking is all about managing liabilities, so therefore we have to amend our odds accordingly' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.'It is the biggest single bet we have ever taken for Ukip to win a General Election.'

The biggest bets Hills have taken on the next General Election for a Tory overall majority is £500 and for Labour, £300.

This one single Ukip bet would win the customer, who placed his bet in a Birmingham betting shop, £43,500, and with many other smaller bets already placed Hills are already facing a hefty six figure payout should it happen.

Hills now offer 10/1 that Ukip will end up with No seats at all; 4/1 1-2; 8/1 3-4; 2/5 5 or more; 7/1 50 or more; 16/1 100 or more; 25/1 to be largest single Party; 40/1 to win the Election with an overall majority.


WITH David Cameron keeping his options open with regard to continued membership of the EU and despite an in/out Referendum being promised should the Tories win the General Election. Hills offer 1/4 that there will be no Referendum during the lifetime of the next Government; 11/4 that there will be. And if there IS a Referendum by 2019 Hills offer 4/7 that it will produce a 'Stay in' vote, 5/4 a 'Leave' vote.

'The whole question of whether there will be an EU Referendum or not is far from clear' said Hill's spoesman Graham Sharpe.

OUTCOME OF GENERAL ELECTION.......1/2 No overall majority; 7/2 Con-LD coalition; 7/2 Lab majority; 9/2 Con majority; 9/2 Lab-LD coalition; 6/1 Coalition involving Ukip; 13/2 Coalition involving SNP; 7/1 Con minority govt; 7/1 Lab minority govt; 40/1 Ukip majority; 500/1 Lib Dem majority.

MOST SEATS AT GE....10/11 Con; 10/11 Lab; 25/1 Ukip; 250/1 LD

How the women of Doncaster North are saving Ed Milibands job.

Doncaster North - full tables

Above is the link for the Lord Ashcorft polls

YOUGOV (EUROPEANS THOUGHTS ON EUROPE)  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard 

More Green candidates declared than LibDem ones so far

I would like to thank for his spread sheet, some fantastic work

Click this Link to get to Andys spreadsheet


Complete list so far 1,883 candidates so far

322 UKIP

A list of upcoming council by elections

The last part of MiddleEnglanders great information fest

It looks like 17 by-elections during December:
* 3 on Thursday 4th
* 1 on Friday 5th
*11 on Thursday 11th
* 2 on Thursday 18th

10 of the contests are in District Coiuncils
- 7 for seats which will face re-election in May
- 3 in seats last elected in May this year
2 are in County Councils last elected in 2013
1 in a Metropolitan Borough last elected in May this year
1 in a London Borough last elected in May
2 in Scottish authorities last elected in 2012
1 in a Welsh authority also last elected in 2012

Conservatives are defending 5 seats, 3 following the death of the former councillor and 2 a resignation
Labour is defending 6 seats, 2 following a death and 4 a resignation
Liberal Democrats are defending 1 seat following a resignation
Independents are defending 2 seats, 1 after a death and 1 following an ill health resignation
A Resident Group is not defending a previous seat following the death of its councillor
UKIP is defending 1 seat following a death
SNP is defending 1 seat following a resignation.

With all nominations declared there are a total of 71 candidates for the 17 seats
- Conservatives are contesting 15 seats, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 10, UKIP 15, Green 6 together with 4 Independents
- there are also 2 SNP, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Lincolnshire Independent and 1 TUSAC

4th December - 3
Mansfield DC, Netherfield - Mansfield Independent Forum died - 3 candidates: Lab, UKIP, TUSAC
Rossendale BC, Longholme - Labour resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Thurrock BC, Aveley & Uplands - UKIP died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind

5th December - 1
Adur DC, St Mary's - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Green

11th December - 11
Argyll & Bute UA, South Kintyre - SNP resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP
Aylesbury Vale DC, Gatehouse - Liberal Democrat resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Ind
Aylesbury Vale DC, Southcourt - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Broxtowe BC, Toton & Chilwell Meadows - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Carmarthenshire UA, Trelech - Independent resigned - 3 candidates: LD, PC, Ind
Halton BC, Kingsway - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Lincolnshire CC, Stamford North - Independent died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Lincolnshire Independents
Moray UA, Elgin City North - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, UKIP, Green. Ind
New Forest DC. Bransgore & Burley - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Sunderland MB, Washington East - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Cox Green - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP

18th December - 2
Kingston upon Thames LB, St James - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Nottinghamshire CC, Ollerton - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP

Current known vacancies where by-election not yet called - 11
Derbyshire CC, Brimington - Labour died 22nd October
Fife UA, Kirkcaldy East - SNP resigned around 31st October
* Herefordshire UA, Mortimer - Conservative died 6th November
* High Peak DC, Limestone Peak - Conservative died around 15th September
* Lichfield DC, St John's - Conservative died 14th September
* Rushcliffe DC, Manvers - Conservative died 26th September
* South Oxfordshire DC, Goring- Conservative died 21st September
* South Ribble BC, Bamber Bridge West - Labour died 1st November
* St Edmunsbury BC, Haverhill East - Conservative sitting as UKIP died 2nd October
* Waveney DC, St Margaret's - Labour died 8th November
* Wealden DC, Crowborough West - Conservative died around 3rd November

* seats that will be contested again in May 2015.
Whilst not covered by the "6 month" rule, experience from earlier years suggests some may be left unfilled until May.

Vacancies covered by the "6 month" rule
Bracknell Forest UA, Winkfield & Cranborne - Conservative died 18th November
Milton Keynes UA, Monkston - Liberal Democrat resigned 17th November
Stroud DC, Nailsworth - Conservative died close to rule becoming applicable
Wychavon DC, Badsey - Conservative died 15th November

Review of council by elections since May

More great work by MiddleEnglander

There were 122 by-elections for 123 seats during the 6 months June to November 2014 with 44 (36%) changing hand or 42 (34%) excluding 2 Lincolnshire Independent (classed as a Resident Group) gains from Independent.   The results can be summarised by:

Party  Candidates      Defended       Retained        Gained           Lost             Won       retention rate
Conservatives          122         43        30       10       13        40       70%
Labour        108         40        34         8         6        42       85%
Liberal Democrats             73         13          7         8         6        15       54%
SNP            6           3          1         2         2          3       33%
Plaid Cymru               2

UKIP          98           5          1         7         4          8       20%
Green          57           2          1         1         1          2       50%
Resident Groups *             7           2
         3         2          3         0%
Independents **          55         14          5         5         9        10       36%
Social Democrat                       1

No Description            4

BNP            2

Christian People's Alliance              1

English Democrats               3

Liberal            1

Mebyon Kernow            2

TUSAC          12

Others ***            5


Total        558       123        79       44       44      123       64%

*   Lincolnshire, Canvey Island, Derwentside and Llandaff North Independents along with Its Our County in Herefordshire and Community Action in Wigan
** 55 Independents contested 39 seats
*** 1 each for British Democrats, Blue, Justice, OMRLP and Patriotic Socialist

The Conservatives contested all but the Orkney by-election, Labour 88% and the Liberal Democrats 59% with UKIP contesting 80% and Greens 46%.

Although 44 seats changed hands during the six months, just 14 were between Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats
- Conservatives gained Cornwall: Mevagiisey and Melton: Asfordby from Labour
   together with Broadland: Wroxham, Somerset: North Frome and Wokingham: Bulmershe from Liberal Democrats
- Labour gained Charnwood: Thurmaston and Crawley: Southgate from the Conservatives and Craven: Skipton West from the Liberal Democrats
- Liberal Democrats gained Cornwall: Illogan, Epping Forest: Hemnall, Guildford: Lovelace and Maidstone: Staplehurst from the Conservatives
   together with Cambridge: Queen Edith's and York: Westfield from Labour

Conservatives gained 3 County Council divisions from a Liberal Democrat (Somerst), UKIP (Essex) and an Independent (Gloucestershire),
two seats from Labour in Cornwall and Melton along seats from a Liberal Democrat in Broadland and Wokingham, an Independent in East Cambridgeshire, Green in Kings Lynn & West Norfolk and UKIP in Cornwall
- whilst losing 4 seats to the Liberal Democrats in Cornwall, Epping Forest, Guildford and Maidstone and 2 to Labour in Charnwood and Crawley
   along with 3 to UKIP in Medway, Shepway and Swale along with 1 each to Green and Its Our County in Herefordshire and 1 an Independent in Telford & Wrekin together with 1 to SNP in Aberdeenshire
Labour gain from Conservatives in Charnwood and Crawley, Liberal Democrat in Craven, SNP in South Lanarkshire and UKIP in Merthyr Tydfil and Redditch
together with 1 each from Derwentside Independent and an Independent in Durham
- whilst losing seats to Conservatives in Cornwall and Melton, Liberal Democrat in Cambrige and York, UKIP in Doncaster and an Independent in Swansea

Liberal Democrats gain 4 seats from Conservatives in Cornwall, Epping Forest, Guildford and Maidstone, from Labour in both Cambridge and York snd from an Independent in both Northumberland and Rutland
- whilst losing seats to a Conservative in Broadland, Somerset and Wokingham, Labour in Craven, UKIP in Worthing and an Independent in North Yorkshire

Independents gained a seat from a Conservative in Telford & Wrekin, a Liberal Democrat in North Yorkshire, Canvey Island Independent in Castle Point and from Labour in Swansea
together with a seat from SNP In Argyll & Bute but was then lost at a subsequent by-election when the newly elected councillor died after just 10 days
- whilst losing a seat to a Conservative in both East Cambridgeshire and Gloucestershire, to a Liberal Democrat in both Northumberland and Rutland
  along with 1 to Labour in Durham, 1 to UKIP in South Tyneside, 2 seats to Lincolnshire Independents in North Kesteven and the seat to SNP in Argyll & Bute

UKIP gained a seat from Conservatives in Medway, Shepway and Swale, one from Labour in Doncaster and another from Liberal Democrats in Worthing
as well as a seat from an Independent in South Tyneside and another from a Social Democrat in East Yorshire
- but lost a seat to a Conservative in both Cornwall and Essex along with another to Labour in both Merthyr Tydfil and Redditch

Greens gained a seat from the Conservatives in Herefordshire but lost another to the Conservatives in Kings Lynn & West Norfolk
SNP gained a seat from Conservative in Aberdeenshire but lost to Labour in South Lanarkshire and also to Independent in Argyll & Bute but subsequently regained
Its Our County gained a seat in Herefordshire from Conservatives along with Lincolnshire Independents 2 seat gain from Independents in North Kesteven
- whilst Derwentside Independent lost a seat to Labour in Durham and Canvey Island Independent to an Independent in Castle Point

A review of Novembers council by election results

MiddleEnglander has excelled again here is the monthly review

There were 24 by-elections during November with 8 (33%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party  Candidates       Defended         Retained           Gained               Lost                 Won         retention rate
Conservative           23           10            8            3           2           11          80%
Labour           21           11            7
           4             7          64%
Liberal Democrat              14             1
            1           1             1             0%
UKIP           17

SNP             2

Plaid Cymru             1

Social Democrat  

Green           13

Independent *           12             1            1            1           1             2         100%
TUSAC              6

Community Action               1

No Description               1

Total         111           24          16            8           8           24          67%

* 12 Independent candidates contested 6 by-elections

Conservatives gained 3 seats, 2 from Labour and 1 from a Liberal Democrat whilst losing a seat each to UKIP and SNP
- regained single member ward in Cornwall, Mevagissey lost to Labour in 2013 on a swing ~9½% since then
- gained the second seat in Melton, Asfordby from Labour on a swing of ~11½% since 2011
- gained second seat in Wokingham. Bulmershe from a Liberal Democrat sitting as Independent on a ~9% swing from Labour who won third seat in May 2014
- lost Medway, Peninsula to UKIP on same day as parliamentary by-election with a 15% UKIP majority over Conservative having not contested ward in 2011
- lost Aberdeenshire Troup to SNP in a 3 member ward electing SNP, Independent & Conservative in 2012 on a first preference 2¼% swing to SNP

Labour did not gain any seats but lost 2 to the Conservatives and one each to a Liberal Democrat and an Independent in
- Cornwall, Mevagissey and Melton, Asfordby to the Conservatives
- Cambridge, Queen Edith's to a Liberal Democrat, who now hold all 3 seats, on a pro Labour 3½% swing since May 2014 but 5% from Labour since 2012
- Swansea, Upland to an Independent, former Liberal Democrat ward councillor and parliamentary candidate who lost his seat in 2012 by 10 votes

Apart from Medway, Peninsula, UKIP also gained East Yorkshire, Bridlington Central & Old Town following death of a long established Social Democrat (SDP)


Much like a dodgy mechanic trying to persuade a vulnerable customer that they need more time to carry out extra work on their car, so George Osborne and David Cameron warned last week of red warning lights flashing on the economic dashboard.
This was a calculated, political move and we're likely to hear more on the subject when Mr Osborne stands up and in the House of Commons next week to deliver to the Autumn Statement.
For the entirety of this Parliament commentators and pundits -  including this author - predicted that the next General Election will be all about the economy. The "red light" warning is recognition of the fact that the Conservative campaign team are worried that that is no longer true, or at least not in the way they hope and need it to be. The economy, and economic growth, is diminishing in importance as a public priority. We've all seen plenty of the Chancellor donning his hard hat and hi-vis jacket to welcome more good economic news: unemployment continuing to fall, GDP growth et al.
The trouble for the Conservatives is that the good economic news brings bad political news. As the economic indicators swing towards the positive, so public concern about the economy has receded and with it less focus on the folk who would run the economy. Immigration, the NHS, reducing the cost of everyday items and the welfare system are all now rated as higher public priorities than economic growth for the government. Hence the warnings of economic turbulence ahead.

Economic credibility is the Conservatives' only remaining electoral strength over Labour, not withstanding Mr Miliband's low personal ratings. David Cameron's Party enjoys a 14 point lead over Miliband and co. when it comes to being trusted to grow the economy. Labour meanwhile lead on keeping down the cost of living and the NHS while UKIP are a long distance the most trust to control immigration.
Expect therefore, to hear a great deal more about the potential economic danger on the horizon. It plays into the Conservatives’ hands to see the economy rise back up the public agenda and turn voters’ attention towards who they most want as custodians.

Switching the debate to economic credibility has added urgency because while things may be improving in the economy at large, it has yet to trickle down to voters. Just 17% say their own personal financial situation has improved. The disconnect between the economy and the pound in the pocket not only supports Labour’s argument that the Coalition government has done nothing to improve things for “hard working families” (the political euphemism for ‘ordinary people’) but it has also helped UKIP’s rise. Many UKIP supporters are the economically “left behind” who have felt little benefit from economic growth.

The worry for Number 10 is that the economy won’t be a sufficiently major electoral issue in May 2015 as voters become comfortable with an improving situation and their heads are turned by other priorities which do not play to Tory strengths.

The Autumn Statement provides the government with the last real chance to make an impact on the economy and the way people feel about their finances. Next year’s Budget will come too late for anything other than promises. The warnings about red lights are designed to make voters consider who they want at Numbers 10 and 11 in difficult times. However, the tightrope the Conservatives have to walk is to convince voters that more work needs to be done on a car that appears to be working ok. 
Follow ComRes on Twitter for the latest polls and analysis:
Author:Tom Mludzinski

Head of Political Polling
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Friday, 28 November 2014

YOUGOV (IMMIGRATION SURVEY)  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard


THE FULL QUESTION If you were the owner of a business, say a chain of fast-food restaurants, would you be biased in favour of hiring immigrant applicants or locally born applicants? Say you only know two things about the applicant, 1) they are both fully qualified for the role, and 2) one is a migrant from Poland, the other was born in Britain.

November 27th council By election results

Melton, Ashfordby - Conservative gain from Labour

Party  2014 votes     2014 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Conservative            265       54.3%       +16.2%          +15.7%       +18.1%          +15.4%
Labour         129       26.4%         -7.7%            -7.0%          -6.4%             -1.5%
UKIP             94       19.3%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere

       -27.8%          -28.1%       -30.9%            -33.2%
Total votes            488
         40%              40%          39%               42%

Swing Labour to Conservative ~12% since 2011 and around 10% since 2007

East Yorkshire, Bridlington Central & Old Town - UKIP gain from Social Democrat

Party  2014 votes     2014 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
UKIP         401       30.8%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Conservative            352       27.1%         -2.0%             -4.0%         +1.2%             -1.5%
Independent Dealtry *            217       16.7%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Independent Dixon         214       16.5%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Independent Tate         116         8.9%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere

       -37.6%           -32.6%       -37.1%           -30.7%

       -27.8%           -29.5%       -10.9%           -12.0%
Liberal Democrat   

         -5.6%             -6.8%       -11.5%           -12.6%

       -14.6%           -16.1%
Total votes        1,300
           42%              51%          34%              38%

* Labour candidate in 2011

Swing not meaningful

East Yorkshire, Howdenshire - Conservative hold

Party  2014 votes    2014 share     since 2013 B   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Conservative          1,020       46.2%        +2.6%         +3.2%            +5.1%         -2.7%             -8.7%
UKIP           891       40.3%        +5.4%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Labour           298       13.5%        -2.1%         +0.2%            -0.1%         +6.8%             +6.0%
Liberal Democrat   

        -5.9%         -6.9%            -6.6%       -23.8%           -19.7%

       -16.5%          -17.3%       -20.6%           -18.0%
East Yorks Ind

       -15.1%            -15.8%

Other Independent  

         -5.3%            -5.6%

Total votes        2,209
         61%          36%             38%           41%              47%

Swing Conservative to UKIP 1.4% since 2013 by-election otherwise not meaningful

East Yorkshire, Ellerby & Kirk Ella - Conservative hold

Party  2014 votes     2014 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"  since 2010 Bsince 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Conservative         1,522       51.8%         +5.7%            +5.5% from nowhere         +0.5%           -0.0%
UKIP          899       30.6%  from nowhere     from nowhere from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Labour          515       17.5%         +1.5%            +2.0%         -2.7%       +12.5%          +13.0%       
Liberal Democrat   

       -29.6%          -30.2%       -79.7%       -43.6%          -43.6%
English Democrat   

         -8.1%            -7.9%

Total votes          2,936
          59%             63%          46%          57%             59%

Swing not meaningful

Hillingdon, Charville - Labour hold

Party  2014 B votes     2014 B share   since 2014 "top"since 2014 "average"since 2010 "top"since 2010 "average"
Labour           950        39.2%         +4.2%            +6.0%         -0.4%            +0.7%
Conservative           929        38.3%         +7.0%            +7.2%         +1.0%            +0.5%
UKIP           468        19.3%         -3.0%            -4.3%  from nowhere     from nowhere
TUSAC             40          1.7%          -1.3%            -1.5%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Liberal Democrat               37          1.5%   from nowhere  from nowhere         -7.1%            -6.9%

         -8.5%            -9.0%         -4.5%            -4.8%

         -9.9%          -10.4%
Total votes          2,424
          54%             57%          39%             41%

Swing Labour to Conservative 1.4% (top) / 0.6% (average)  since May 2014 and 0.7% (top) / 0.1% Conservative to Labour (average) since 2010