2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (20th OCT)

This report was generated on 20 October 2014 at 12:27. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.

Conservatives:	Gains	Losses
Labour:	Gains	Losses
Liberal Democrats:	Gains	Losses
SNP:	Gains	Losses
Plaid Cymru:	Gains	Losses
Greens:	Gains	Losses
UKIP:	Gains

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 306 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.

• And now the party forecast...
  • Conservatives. Fading slightly over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality unlikely.
  • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality probable.
  • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
  • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
  • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
  • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
  • UKIP. Rising. Seat gain almost certain.

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	232	275	318	-31
Labour	264	306	347	48
Liberal Democrats	14	26	39	-31
SNP	12	19	28	13
Plaid Cymru	0	2	4	-1
Greens	0	0	1	-1
UKIP	1	3	6	3
Other	1	1	2	0